Predicted scoreToss-up
Purdue
22.6
Iowa
23.7
Iowa win probability: 53%
Margin (Iowa − Purdue): 1.0 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Purdue 14 – Iowa 20 (margin error 5.0, total error 12.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.