2023 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023, 7:30 PM · Cajun Field
Texas State @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas State
25.0
Louisiana
27.8
Louisiana win probability: 57%
Margin (Louisiana − Texas State): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Texas State 30 – Louisiana 34 (margin error 1.2, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.