2024 Postseason · Dec 28, 2024, 4:00 PM · Fenway Park (neutral site)

UConn @ North Carolina

Predicted scoreConfident

UConn

17.3

North Carolina

35.5

North Carolina win probability: 87%

Margin (North Carolina − UConn): 18.2 (80% range -3 to 39)

Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 76)

Actual: UConn 27 – North Carolina 14 (margin error 31.2, total error 11.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.