2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Nevada @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreConfident
Nevada
14.5
Fresno State
34.2
Fresno State win probability: 90%
Margin (Fresno State − Nevada): 19.7 (80% range 0 to 40)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Nevada 9 – Fresno State 27 (margin error 1.7, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:12 PM | 19.7 | 48.7 | 90% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:42 PM | 19.7 | 48.7 | 90% |