2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
35.1
Mississippi State
19.8
Mississippi State win probability: 17%
Margin (Mississippi State − Alabama): -15.3 (80% range -35 to 5)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Alabama 40 – Mississippi State 17 (margin error 7.7, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:11 PM | -15.3 | 54.8 | 17% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:41 PM | -15.3 | 54.8 | 17% |