2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 12:00 AM · Amon G. Carter Stadium
West Virginia @ TCU
Predicted scoreLean
West Virginia
26.7
TCU
32.4
TCU win probability: 63%
Margin (TCU − West Virginia): 5.7 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 35 to 85)
Actual: West Virginia 24 – TCU 21 (margin error 8.7, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:59 PM | 5.7 | 59.2 | 63% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:40 PM | 5.7 | 59.2 | 63% |