2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:30 PM · Neyland Stadium
South Carolina @ Tennessee
Predicted scoreLikely
South Carolina
19.3
Tennessee
32.5
Tennessee win probability: 80%
Margin (Tennessee − South Carolina): 13.2 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: South Carolina 20 – Tennessee 41 (margin error 7.8, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:59 PM | 13.2 | 51.8 | 80% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:40 PM | 13.2 | 51.8 | 80% |