Predicted scoreLikely
Charlotte
24.9
SMU
34.2
SMU win probability: 71%
Margin (SMU − Charlotte): 9.3 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 35 to 85)
Actual: Charlotte 16 – SMU 34 (margin error 8.7, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:58 PM | 9.3 | 59.2 | 71% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:39 PM | 9.3 | 59.2 | 71% |