2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:00 PM · Rice Stadium
East Carolina @ Rice
Predicted scoreLean
East Carolina
32.3
Rice
27.1
Rice win probability: 38%
Margin (Rice − East Carolina): -5.2 (80% range -27 to 16)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 34 to 86)
Actual: East Carolina 17 – Rice 24 (margin error 12.2, total error 18.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:12 PM | -5.2 | 59.5 | 38% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:39 PM | -5.2 | 59.5 | 38% |