2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa State
19.8
Oklahoma
32.2
Oklahoma win probability: 78%
Margin (Oklahoma − Iowa State): 12.4 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Iowa State 20 – Oklahoma 50 (margin error 17.6, total error 18.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:10 PM | 12.4 | 52.0 | 78% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:38 PM | 12.4 | 52.0 | 78% |