2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM · War Memorial Stadium
New Mexico @ Wyoming
Predicted scoreConfident
New Mexico
16.7
Wyoming
34.9
Wyoming win probability: 88%
Margin (Wyoming − New Mexico): 18.2 (80% range -1 to 38)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: New Mexico 26 – Wyoming 35 (margin error 9.2, total error 9.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 28 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:09 PM | 18.2 | 51.6 | 88% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:37 PM | 18.2 | 51.6 | 88% |