2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Boise State @ Memphis
Predicted scoreToss-up
Boise State
26.6
Memphis
28.7
Memphis win probability: 55%
Margin (Memphis − Boise State): 2.0 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Boise State 32 – Memphis 35 (margin error 1.0, total error 11.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:09 PM | 2.0 | 55.3 | 55% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:36 PM | 2.0 | 55.3 | 55% |