2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM · Jones AT&T Stadium
Houston @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
23.4
Texas Tech
33.8
Texas Tech win probability: 73%
Margin (Texas Tech − Houston): 10.3 (80% range -11 to 32)
Total: 57.2 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Houston 28 – Texas Tech 49 (margin error 10.7, total error 19.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:07 PM | 10.3 | 57.2 | 73% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:34 PM | 10.3 | 57.2 | 73% |