Predicted scoreConfident
Michigan
37.3
Nebraska
15.3
Nebraska win probability: 8%
Margin (Nebraska − Michigan): -22.1 (80% range -42 to -3)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Michigan 45 – Nebraska 7 (margin error 15.9, total error 0.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.85% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.77% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.75% |
| 28 | 7 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:05 PM | -22.1 | 52.6 | 8% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:33 PM | -22.1 | 52.6 | 8% |