Predicted scoreLean
Baylor
29.0
UCF
35.0
UCF win probability: 64%
Margin (UCF − Baylor): 6.0 (80% range -15 to 28)
Total: 64.0 (80% range 38 to 91)
Actual: Baylor 36 – UCF 35 (margin error 7.0, total error 7.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.53% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.53% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:05 PM | 6.0 | 64.0 | 64% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:33 PM | 6.0 | 64.0 | 64% |