2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 6:00 PM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Virginia @ Boston College
Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia
26.4
Boston College
27.7
Boston College win probability: 53%
Margin (Boston College − Virginia): 1.3 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Virginia 24 – Boston College 27 (margin error 1.7, total error 3.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:04 PM | 1.3 | 54.1 | 53% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:32 PM | 1.3 | 54.1 | 53% |