2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 5:30 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Eastern Michigan
19.4
Central Michigan
33.8
Central Michigan win probability: 82%
Margin (Central Michigan − Eastern Michigan): 14.4 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Eastern Michigan 23 – Central Michigan 26 (margin error 11.4, total error 4.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:04 PM | 14.4 | 53.1 | 82% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:32 PM | 14.4 | 53.1 | 82% |