Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana
26.5
Minnesota
28.4
Minnesota win probability: 55%
Margin (Minnesota − Louisiana): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Louisiana 24 – Minnesota 35 (margin error 9.1, total error 4.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:02 PM | 1.9 | 54.9 | 55% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:30 PM | 1.9 | 54.9 | 55% |