Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
25.9
Kentucky
26.3
Kentucky win probability: 51%
Margin (Kentucky − Florida): 0.4 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Florida 14 – Kentucky 33 (margin error 18.6, total error 5.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:02 PM | 0.4 | 52.2 | 51% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:30 PM | 0.4 | 52.2 | 51% |