Sam's Scores

2023 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2023, 11:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLean
Middle Tennessee
25.0
Western Kentucky
32.2
Western Kentucky win probability: 67%
Margin (Western Kentucky − Middle Tennessee): 7.1 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 57.2 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Middle Tennessee 10 – Western Kentucky 31 (margin error 13.9, total error 16.2)
Most likely scorelines
AwayHomeProbability
17310.84%
17280.68%
24280.63%
24240.62%
21310.60%
Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.

Home score →Away score →
Prediction movement through the week
GeneratedPred. marginPred. totalHome win prob
8/12/2026, 9:41:00 PM7.157.267%
8/13/2026, 3:13:42 PM7.157.267%