2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 2:30 AM · Mountain America Stadium

USC @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreConfident

USC

39.4

Arizona State

21.5

Arizona State win probability: 14%

Margin (Arizona State − USC): -17.8 (80% range -39 to 3)

Total: 60.9 (80% range 37 to 86)

Actual: USC 42 – Arizona State 28 (margin error 3.8, total error 9.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.