2024 Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Tulsa @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreLean

Tulsa

27.5

Arkansas State

32.3

Arkansas State win probability: 61%

Margin (Arkansas State − Tulsa): 4.8 (80% range -17 to 27)

Total: 59.7 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Tulsa 24 – Arkansas State 28 (margin error 0.8, total error 7.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.