2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 12:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

UCF @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreLikely

UCF

21.6

Kansas State

34.3

Kansas State win probability: 79%

Margin (Kansas State − UCF): 12.7 (80% range -7 to 34)

Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: UCF 31 – Kansas State 44 (margin error 0.3, total error 19.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.