2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 12:00 AM · Acrisure Stadium
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Carolina
24.0
Pittsburgh
25.2
Pittsburgh win probability: 53%
Margin (Pittsburgh − North Carolina): 1.3 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: North Carolina 41 – Pittsburgh 24 (margin error 18.3, total error 15.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.