2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 11:30 PM · Ryan Field
Minnesota @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreToss-up
Minnesota
26.8
Northwestern
24.9
Northwestern win probability: 45%
Margin (Northwestern − Minnesota): -1.9 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Minnesota 34 – Northwestern 37 (margin error 4.9, total error 19.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.