2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Southern Miss

29.2

Arkansas State

25.9

Arkansas State win probability: 42%

Margin (Arkansas State − Southern Miss): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Southern Miss 37 – Arkansas State 44 (margin error 10.3, total error 26.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.