2024 Postseason · Dec 25, 2024, 1:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (neutral site)

South Florida @ San José State

Predicted scoreLikely

South Florida

24.8

San José State

37.1

San José State win probability: 77%

Margin (San José State − South Florida): 12.3 (80% range -9 to 34)

Total: 61.9 (80% range 37 to 89)

Actual: South Florida 41 – San José State 39 (margin error 14.3, total error 18.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.