2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 8:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Oklahoma State

26.9

Iowa State

25.4

Iowa State win probability: 47%

Margin (Iowa State − Oklahoma State): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Oklahoma State 27 – Iowa State 34 (margin error 8.5, total error 8.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.