2024 Postseason · Dec 23, 2024, 7:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium (neutral site)

Northern Illinois @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLean

Northern Illinois

24.8

Fresno State

32.0

Fresno State win probability: 67%

Margin (Fresno State − Northern Illinois): 7.2 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Northern Illinois 28 – Fresno State 20 (margin error 15.2, total error 8.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.