Predicted scoreConfident
Duke
38.4
UConn
16.7
UConn win probability: 9%
Margin (UConn − Duke): -21.7 (80% range -42 to -1)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Duke 41 – UConn 7 (margin error 12.3, total error 7.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 35 | 10 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.