2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Florida Atlantic @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida Atlantic

17.7

Illinois

32.1

Illinois win probability: 82%

Margin (Illinois − Florida Atlantic): 14.4 (80% range -6 to 35)

Total: 49.9 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Florida Atlantic 17 – Illinois 23 (margin error 8.4, total error 9.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.