2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

New Mexico @ Massachusetts

Predicted scoreToss-up

New Mexico

25.9

Massachusetts

25.8

Massachusetts win probability: 50%

Margin (Massachusetts − New Mexico): -0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: New Mexico 34 – Massachusetts 31 (margin error 3.0, total error 13.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.