2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM · FirstBank Stadium
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
Kentucky
34.5
Vanderbilt
20.3
Vanderbilt win probability: 18%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Kentucky): -14.2 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Kentucky 45 – Vanderbilt 28 (margin error 2.8, total error 18.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.