Predicted scoreLean
Wisconsin
30.1
Purdue
23.7
Purdue win probability: 35%
Margin (Purdue − Wisconsin): -6.4 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Wisconsin 38 – Purdue 17 (margin error 14.6, total error 1.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.