Predicted scoreLikely
Kansas
37.5
Nevada
23.7
Nevada win probability: 21%
Margin (Nevada − Kansas): -13.8 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 61.1 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Kansas 31 – Nevada 24 (margin error 6.8, total error 6.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 38 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.