2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Tennessee @ Florida

Predicted scoreLean

Tennessee

30.8

Florida

24.6

Florida win probability: 35%

Margin (Florida − Tennessee): -6.3 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Tennessee 16 – Florida 29 (margin error 19.3, total error 10.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.