2024 Postseason · Dec 21, 2024, 1:00 AM · Notre Dame Stadium

Indiana @ Notre Dame

Predicted scoreConfident

Indiana

14.9

Notre Dame

39.2

Notre Dame win probability: 94%

Margin (Notre Dame − Indiana): 24.4 (80% range 4 to 45)

Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Indiana 17 – Notre Dame 27 (margin error 14.4, total error 10.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.