Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana
25.7
UAB
29.3
UAB win probability: 59%
Margin (UAB − Louisiana): 3.6 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Louisiana 41 – UAB 21 (margin error 23.6, total error 6.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.