2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Tulane @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Tulane

32.4

Southern Miss

19.5

Southern Miss win probability: 21%

Margin (Southern Miss − Tulane): -13.0 (80% range -34 to 7)

Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Tulane 21 – Southern Miss 3 (margin error 5.0, total error 27.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.