2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM · Wallace Wade Stadium
Northwestern @ Duke
Predicted scoreLikely
Northwestern
21.6
Duke
31.0
Duke win probability: 72%
Margin (Duke − Northwestern): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Northwestern 14 – Duke 38 (margin error 14.6, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.