2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM · Kidd Brewer Stadium

East Carolina @ App State

Predicted scoreLean

East Carolina

24.9

App State

33.5

App State win probability: 70%

Margin (App State − East Carolina): 8.6 (80% range -13 to 30)

Total: 58.3 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: East Carolina 28 – App State 43 (margin error 6.4, total error 12.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.