2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM · Raymond James Stadium

Alabama @ South Florida

Predicted scoreConfident

Alabama

40.8

South Florida

15.4

South Florida win probability: 6%

Margin (South Florida − Alabama): -25.4 (80% range -46 to -4)

Total: 56.2 (80% range 34 to 80)

Actual: Alabama 17 – South Florida 3 (margin error 11.4, total error 36.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.