2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Florida State @ Boston College

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida State

35.9

Boston College

20.9

Boston College win probability: 18%

Margin (Boston College − Florida State): -15.0 (80% range -36 to 6)

Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Florida State 31 – Boston College 29 (margin error 13.0, total error 3.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.