2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Lucas Oil Stadium (neutral site)

Louisville @ Indiana

Predicted scoreLikely

Louisville

31.5

Indiana

22.2

Indiana win probability: 28%

Margin (Indiana − Louisville): -9.3 (80% range -30 to 11)

Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Louisville 21 – Indiana 14 (margin error 2.3, total error 18.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.