2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 AM · Falcon Stadium
Utah State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLikely
Utah State
20.2
Air Force
34.0
Air Force win probability: 81%
Margin (Air Force − Utah State): 13.8 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Utah State 21 – Air Force 39 (margin error 4.2, total error 5.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.