Predicted scoreLean
Virginia
23.6
Maryland
31.4
Maryland win probability: 69%
Margin (Maryland − Virginia): 7.8 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Virginia 14 – Maryland 42 (margin error 20.2, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.