2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 11:30 PM · Snapdragon Stadium
UCLA @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreLikely
UCLA
32.1
San Diego State
21.2
San Diego State win probability: 25%
Margin (San Diego State − UCLA): -10.9 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: UCLA 35 – San Diego State 10 (margin error 14.1, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.