2024 Postseason · Dec 18, 2024, 10:30 PM · FAU Stadium (neutral site)

Western Kentucky @ James Madison

Predicted scoreLikely

Western Kentucky

22.3

James Madison

33.4

James Madison win probability: 76%

Margin (James Madison − Western Kentucky): 11.2 (80% range -10 to 32)

Total: 55.7 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Western Kentucky 17 – James Madison 27 (margin error 1.2, total error 11.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.