Predicted scoreLikely
Texas
20.0
Alabama
35.9
Alabama win probability: 84%
Margin (Alabama − Texas): 15.9 (80% range -4 to 37)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 32 to 80)
Actual: Texas 34 – Alabama 24 (margin error 25.9, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.