2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 11:30 PM · Bryant-Denny Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ Alabama

Predicted scoreConfident

Middle Tennessee

9.4

Alabama

45.0

Alabama win probability: 99%

Margin (Alabama − Middle Tennessee): 35.6 (80% range 14 to 57)

Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 7 – Alabama 56 (margin error 13.4, total error 8.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.